Disrupted travel in 2014
05 January, 2014
3 min read
Fewer frequent-flyer perks, less choice and more consolidation are on the radar for travellers. That is the gloomy forecast from Colorado based aviation consultancy Boyd Group International.
In its new white-paper Ten Disruptive Realities to Prepare for in 2014, Boyd Group International lays out things air travelers should beware of in the year to come. Here are the ones that are closest to home:
-As far as airline consolidation is concerned, there’s going to be more of it – and it won’t merely be a matter of mergers. Watch for some carriers to go under. The report quotes International Airline Group (the holding company for British Airways and Iberia) CEO Willie Walsh as saying over the next few years consolidation will be largely in the form of non-viable airlines going out of business. The report says, “The real dynamic Mr. Walsh is referring to will be seen in Asia and India.” As for would-be mergers, Disruptive Realities asserts, “The only merger on the vague horizon [in the US] is Alaska.” Delta could be the suitor.
- So-called Global Portals, megahubs where one carrier dominates, could eclipse airline alliances. “Airline alliances are starting to fray,” contends the white paper. This “as major players build their own Global Portals that have less need for intra-alliance feed.” Disruptive Realities cites Korean Air, which “is building a second Dubai at Incheon.”
- NextGen, the Next Generation air traffic control system being built in the United States remains an uncertain promise, one in which “The [specific completion] dates and goals will continue to shift into the miasmic future.” Disruptive Realities predicts, “The US air traffic control system will remain pretty much where it is today.”
- Small and medium-size US cities will feel the pinch now that there are just four network carriers in the country. Some of them will lose local flights. The white paper says, “The US airline network is not going to expand in 2012. Restructure route systems, yes. But the Air Service Cavalry is not coming to save small and mid-seize local airports.”
- Bid goodbye to frequent flyer programs as we’ve known them in the past. They’ve “outlived their original purpose,” maintains Boyd Group International. Instead of being efforts to entice flyers to switch airline brands, as they were back in the 1980s, “Today they are vehicles where consumers prove their loyalty to the airline, in exchange for receiving the right to earn “non-inconveniences” such as priority boarding, seating in the front portion of economy and the like.
The white paper concludes: “The coming year will be one of major and sometimes wrenching changes.”
Interestingly the changes that have occurred - of major consolidation - and those forecast, are the exact opposite of what was predicated by the father of US de-regulation Alfred Khan in 1978.
Khan argued that de-regulation would break up the major airline groups and allow more airlines to enter the market. Initially many small airlines did start up but over time have disappeared as the harsh reality of airline economics hit home while major airlines have merged.
-With Geoffrey Thomas
Next Article
Qantas triples profit but misses mark
Get the latest news and updates straight to your inbox
No spam, no hassle, no fuss, just airline news direct to you.
By joining our newsletter, you agree to our Privacy Policy
Find us on social media
Comments
No comments yet, be the first to write one.