This year’s Farnborough International Air Show, which starts Monday, July 22nd be the tale of two aerospace giants – Airbus and Boeing – with the winner if aircraft participation is any guide, the former.

In an unprecedented move, Boeing is not exhibiting any commercial aircraft at Farnborough with that role left to Qatar Airways with a Boeing 787-9. In stark contrast, Airbus will have a full roster of its impressive lineup led by an A350 in Air India colours, an A220-300 in JetBlue livery, an A321XLR and an A330-900neo adorned in the stunning Virgin Atlantic livery. Also, on display from the Airbus stable will be an ATR 72-600 and an ATR 72-600F regional turboprops.

Embraer will also wave its flag with the E195-E2 regional jet, E-Freighter and C-390 military transport. Embraer may also land some orders from Australian customers.

Despite the lack of Boeing commercial hardware Farnborough International reports record-breaking demand for exhibition space, sponsorship packages and marketing activations.

The show is set against an industry grappling with soaring passenger and cargo demand with supply chains still struggling to recover from the massive pandemic upheaval.

The biggest story going into the show is Boeing going back to the future entering into a definitive agreement to acquire Spirit AeroSystems to bring the company back under its control. Spirit was formed when Boeing sold its Wichita, Kansas, factory along with facilities in Tulsa to investment firm Onex Corporation in 2005.

The merger is an all-stock transaction at an equity value of approximately US$4.7 billion ($6.96B) with the total transaction value of approximately US$8.3 billion, including Spirit’s last reported net debt.

Boeing President and CEO Dave Calhoun said “By reintegrating Spirit, we can fully align our commercial production systems, including our Safety and Quality Management Systems, and our workforce to the same priorities, incentives and outcomes – centred on safety and quality.”

Airbus will acquire, subject to definitive agreements, commercial work packages that Spirit performs for Airbus concurrently with the closing of the Boeing-Spirit merger.

The Spirit deal can’t come soon enough with deliveries of the 737 fuselages slowed to a trickle as Spirit resolves production quality issues. According to New York-based analysts Bernstein Boeing's goal is to reach a 38/month rate by year-end, with the pickup to be primarily in H2. Boeing hopes to get to 50/month in 2026.

And Boeing’s problems don’t end with the 737 with the 787-production rate slowed by part shortages to just 5/month. Bernstein said that “the prior goal of 10/month by year-end has been moved back to early 2026.”

Airbus is not immune to supply chain problems and last month announced a reduction of 2024 deliveries due to the worsening supply chain challenges, which also led to the push-out of 75/month A320 production to 2027. Airbus now expects 770 deliveries in 2024 down from 800 previously. By way of contrast, Boeing expects to deliver 400 aircraft this year.

On the order front, Airbus appears to be in the poll position with Cebu Pacific announcing its commitment to 150 A321neos in the last week of June. Other large orders are rumoured from such airlines as Turkish Airlines and Qatar Airways.

With Boeing’s 777X now appearing to be on track for certification and EIS in 2025 it could expected that the aircraft may attract order interest at the Farnborough International Airshow, particularly after Emirate's massive commitment at last year’s Dubai Air Show. Emirates ordered 55 additional Boeing 777-9s and 35 777-8s bringing Emirates’ total 777X orders to 205. Boeing 777 and 777X backlog now stands at 539.

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